Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, described the Federal Reserve's RMP purchase program as "quantitative easing in disguise," predicting that renewed liquidity would drive up the price of Bitcoin.

 

The chief investment officer of Mailström Fund expects Bitcoin to trade between $80,000 and $100,000 in the near term before recovering to $124,000 and potentially targeting $200,000.

Hayes published his analysis in a December 19 article titled "The Language of Love," arguing that the risk management program functions similarly to quantitative easing through indirect mechanisms.

He announced a portfolio shift from Ethereum to high-quality decentralized finance assets that he believes are poised to outperform as fiat currencies become more liquid.

 

The RMP operates through a money market fund channel.

The Federal Reserve announced its Risk Management Program (RMP) at the December 10 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Hayes’s accounting analysis shows that the program purchases short-term Treasury securities from money market funds, which then reinvest the proceeds in long-term Treasury securities or in repurchase markets.

This structure indirectly finances government spending without the political costs of formally announcing quantitative easing.

“Although RMP purchases are technically smaller in absolute terms than previous quantitative easing programs ($40 billion per month), the structural mechanism creates an equivalent monetary expansion,” Hayes writes.

The program is further strengthened by the government’s reliance on Treasury securities to finance deficits that exceed $2 trillion annually.

Hayes notes that the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, has discretion to expand the RMP through vague guidance on “adequate reserves.”

This structure enables unlimited expansion of the balance sheet with minimal oversight, which Hayes famously called "the money printer going brrrrrrr."

 

Bitcoin’s Multi-Stage Price Path Through 2026

Hayes anticipates volatile trading between $80,000 and $100,000 from December 2025 through January 2026.

Two factors are driving this range: the persistent belief that the Risk Management Program (RMP) is distinct from quantitative easing (QE), and uncertainty about whether the program will continue beyond its scheduled end in April 2026.

Once markets grasp the true nature of the RMP as a form of quantitative easing, Hayes predicts a rapid acceleration.

Bitcoin will quickly recover to $124,000 and target $200,000 in early to mid-2026. This phase will be fueled by institutional miss-the-opportunity fears, ETF inflows, and the recognition that the Federal Reserve guarantees government spending.

March 2026 represents the peak of expectations for RMP’s ability to drive asset prices higher. Hayes anticipates Bitcoin will then decline and establish a local bottom “well above $124,000.”

The pullback will be temporary and strategic, not the climax of the cycle. Hayes raised his long-term forecast to $500,000 by the end of 2026 in comments he made in late November.