Bitcoin's price is under pressure as gold surpasses the euro to become the world's second-largest reserve. At the same time, Bitcoin's price is approaching its 200-day simple moving average.

Will these changes enhance the appeal of cryptocurrencies as a form of digital gold, or weaken it?

Current Bitcoin Price Scenario

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $105,500. Bitcoin has experienced significant price volatility over the past few days, with significant price fluctuations due to the decline in risk, resulting in over $1 billion in liquidation. Bitcoin is also below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
US trade tensions and turmoil in the banking sector have boosted demand for gold amid the bearish conditions prevailing in global financial markets. Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest global reserve held by central banks, now representing approximately 20% of reserves, compared to 16% for the euro.

 

Positive Bitcoin Price Forecast

A recovery may be possible if overall markets stabilize and demand for ETFs returns. A recovery of the $112,000-$115,000 range would be the first bullish catalyst, paving the way for a recovery to the $120,000-$125,000 range.
Ironically, a rise in gold could support Bitcoin by reinforcing the need for alternative non-sovereign stores of value. If macroeconomic conditions deteriorate or inflation expectations rise again, a return of capital from bullion to digital assets could revive the idea of ​​"digital gold" and restore hope for the currency's rise.

 

Downside Risks for Bitcoin

Conversely, if central banks continue to favor bullion over financial assets, capital outflows from cryptocurrencies may continue. Continued ETF outflows or weak liquidity could intensify pressures, especially if global risk aversion worsens.
A sharp drop below $100,000 would represent a technical and psychological shift and would likely accelerate losses toward $95,000-$98,000. In this case, Bitcoin's safe-haven narrative may further decline as investors focus on tangible assets rather than digital currencies.

 

Bitcoin Price Prediction Based on Current Levels

Currently, Bitcoin appears to be stuck in a consolidation range between $100,000 and $112,000. A sustained close above $112,000 and $115,000 would shift the short-term outlook to the upside, targeting a range of $120,000 and $125,000 if overall market sentiment stabilizes. Below $100,000, the risk level is tilted toward $95,000 and $98,000, especially if the dominance of gold reserves continues to absorb institutional demand.

The next decisive move for the market will likely depend on whether traders view gold's rise as a competitor or a reinforcement of Bitcoin's role as a sound digital currency.