Gold has yet to recover from its sharp decline from its all-time high, but the pace of decline is beginning to slow. OCBC Bank foreign exchange analysts Francis Cheung and Christopher Wong note that the price of gold (XAU) was last recorded at 4,114.34.

 

Daily momentum shows signs of a bearish shift

The daily momentum on the daily chart is showing initial signs of a bearish shift, while the RSI's decline has slowed. The next key support levels at 4023 (21-day moving average) and 3971 (38.2% Fibonacci) are key points to watch. A daily close below these levels could open the door to further declines towards 3845 (50% Fibonacci) and 3720 (50-day moving average, 61.8% Fibonacci).
Bulls will need to reclaim the resistance level at 4120/30 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the pre-August period to the October high) to stabilize market sentiment. The next resistance is at 4200 and 4380 (recent all-time high).

Despite our near-term caution given the complexity of technical indicators, we maintain a positive outlook for 2026, based on a combination of structural and fundamental factors. Strong official sector demand, the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle, and broader demand for gold as a reliable store of value and hedge against inflation, debt, and geopolitical risks should support this positive outlook.