For months, major cryptocurrency promoters have been promising an "unbelievable" fourth quarter—and they weren't wrong, just not in the way they intended.

Bitcoin, the leading digital asset in the space, has been underperforming since the start of the fourth quarter. It hit a six-month low over the weekend as liquidity dwindled in global markets.

The coin fell to around $92,970 on Sunday and has since hovered around $94,900, as of its last check on November 17.

Bitcoin (BTC) has gained an average of 77% over the past four quarters, while Ethereum (ETH) typically rises by around 19%.

Since last week, Bitcoin's price has fallen by more than 10%, while Ethereum's price has dropped by more than 11%.

Solana's (SOL) shares have declined by more than 24% since the start of the fourth quarter and by more than 16% in the last seven days.

 

A chorus of confident predictions

This decline is particularly noteworthy given the number of prominent figures in the finance and cryptocurrency sectors who were touting cryptocurrencies at the start of the fourth quarter. Eric Trump, co-founder of American Bitcoin Corp., declared that the fourth quarter would be "spectacular." He was wrong.

Analysts at JPMorgan and Citi predicted a strong year-end rally, fueled by ETF inflows, with Bitcoin expected to reach $180,000 by the end of 2025, alongside significant price increases for Ethereum and Solana.

Influential voices in the crypto community also joined in: market analyst Ted Bellows predicted a 35% rise, commentator Scott Melker suggested a path to $250,000, and X-Ash Crypto personality predicted Bitcoin would race to $150,000–$180,000.

Instead, the fourth quarter saw the exact opposite—a slump driven by risk aversion, a slowdown in institutional flows, and renewed regulatory pressures that dampened what many had anticipated would be a broad-based rally.

Far from confirming the bulls’ predictions, the fourth quarter reminded investors that seasonal patterns in cryptocurrencies are by no means guaranteed.

 

So what happened to the historic strong finish of cryptocurrencies?

A combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, AI-driven capital turnover, and inflated expectations. The lesson learned as the year draws to a close: In the crypto world, even the most outlandish predictions can come true, but not in the direction forecasters envisioned.